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Statistical Question On Point Mutation Causing Stop Codon

Is there anyway to calculate or model this question:

What is the chance of causing a stop codon to occur X nucleotides downstream after N indel(s) in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd nucleotide of a codon?

Is this question just too broad to produce any informative statistical model?

I guess I could try to bootstrap this by randomly causing indels in a set of transcript sequences and look at distances between the point mutation and first stop codon.

statistics codon

Not sure I understand the set-up fully, can you just look at the observed codons, simulate an indel and tabulate the resulting downstream (stop) codons?

Yeah I guess I'll just bootstrap it.

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