So the intercept only model is what Marioni et al. refer to as the null hypothesis, while the model with the treatment group specified refers to the alternative hypothesis?
glm(count ~ 1, data=data, family=poisson) # null hypothesis
glm(count ~ treatment, data=data, family=poisson) # alternative hypothesis
The P-value is therefore the following?
test <- anova(model, test="Chi")
test$`Pr(>Chi)`
They go on to estimate fold change by fitting the model under the alternative hypothesis, which would mean calculating the ratio of the expected means I've already computed?
treatment1_mean <- mean[1]
treatment2_mean <- mean[2]
treatment1_mean / treatment2_mean